Closing spread
PIT -4.5
Total
36
Model margin
+7.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.147EPA / play+0.044
- 38.6%Success rate44.9%
- -0.067EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.251EPA / rush-0.028
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.4%
- 29.2%Third-down rate44.9%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.18Points / drive1.83
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.002EPA / play allowed-0.133
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 16/34 | 210 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Lee Suggs | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| William Green | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 16/21 | 231 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 21 | 117 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Jerome Bettis | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.4%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.01