Closing spread
ATL -6.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.032
- 39.8%Success rate41.4%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.047
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.012
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- 32.3%Third-down rate36.1%
- 51.0%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.23Points / drive1.69
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.024
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. ATL are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 16/24 | 146 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artose Pinner | 23 | 68 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Shawn Bryson | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 18/29 | 196 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.64