Closing spread
ATL -6.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.032
- 39.8%Success rate41.4%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.047
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.012
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- 32.3%Third-down rate36.1%
- 51.0%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.23Points / drive1.69
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.024
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. ATL are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 11:09 | 8 | 49 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 5:23 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 3:53 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 2:34 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 0:26 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q2 11:47 | 3 | 4 | Touchdown | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q2 10:21 | 3 | 32 | Touchdown | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q2 9:17 | 7 | 22 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DET | Q2 6:26 | 6 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ATL | Q2 3:20 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| DET | Q2 3:07 | 3 | 2 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| ATL | Q2 1:57 | 8 | 70 | Turnover on downs | 14–7 |
| DET | Q2 0:21 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–7 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 14–7 |
| ATL | Q3 11:10 | 3 | -3 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| DET | Q3 9:47 | 6 | 33 | Missed field goal | 14–7 |
| ATL | Q3 6:47 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DET | Q3 5:20 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DET | Q3 3:24 | 7 | 4 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| ATL | Q3 0:23 | 9 | 53 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| DET | Q4 11:23 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–10 |
| ATL | Q4 9:52 | 7 | 17 | Punt | 17–10 |
| DET | Q4 5:38 | 9 | 30 | Punt | 17–10 |
| ATL | Q4 2:07 | 6 | 39 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| DET | Q4 0:45 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 16/24 | 146 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artose Pinner | 23 | 68 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Shawn Bryson | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 18/29 | 196 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.64