Closing spread
JAX -2.5
Total
37
Model margin
+3.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. SD are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 36/54 | 357 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 11 | 64 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.08
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.