Closing spread
JAX -2.5
Total
37
Model margin
+3.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. SD are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 66 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 10:14 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 8:16 | 8 | 76 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| JAX | Q1 4:03 | 5 | 29 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q1 1:23 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 0–14 |
| JAX | Q2 14:02 | 7 | 27 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q2 11:26 | 5 | 21 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| JAX | Q2 9:23 | 15 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q2 1:33 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–21 |
| JAX | Q2 1:02 | 5 | 32 | End of half | 7–21 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q3 13:46 | 11 | 73 | Field goal | 7–24 |
| JAX | Q3 7:15 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–24 |
| LAC | Q3 5:06 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 7–24 |
| JAX | Q3 1:46 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–24 |
| LAC | Q3 1:40 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 7–27 |
| JAX | Q3 0:46 | 15 | 97 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| LAC | Q4 10:42 | 2 | 72 | Touchdown | 14–34 |
| JAX | Q4 9:54 | 7 | 79 | Touchdown | 21–34 |
| LAC | Q4 7:21 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 21–34 |
| JAX | Q4 3:04 | 13 | 72 | Turnover on downs | 21–34 |
| LAC | Q4 0:14 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 21–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 36/54 | 357 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 11 | 64 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.08
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.