Closing spread
IND -8.5
Total
52
Model margin
+4.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. IND are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 50 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 8:57 | 6 | 19 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 6:11 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 3:47 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 1:29 | 7 | 67 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 13:24 | 9 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| IND | Q2 8:56 | 12 | 56 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| LV | Q2 2:30 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 7–21 |
| IND | Q2 0:17 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 7–21 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 7–21 |
| IND | Q3 11:53 | 9 | 51 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| LV | Q3 7:07 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 7–21 |
| IND | Q3 4:13 | 13 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| LV | Q4 13:29 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–28 |
| IND | Q4 13:17 | 6 | 18 | Missed field goal | 7–28 |
| LV | Q4 9:36 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| IND | Q4 6:14 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–28 |
| LV | Q4 4:38 | 9 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 14–28 |
| IND | Q4 2:52 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 14–28 |
| LV | Q4 2:16 | 2 | 8 | Opp touchdown | 14–35 |
| LV | Q4 1:48 | 7 | 10 | Turnover on downs | 14–35 |
| IND | Q4 0:23 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 16/26 | 198 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 32 | 136 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.54
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.