Closing spread
PHI -10
Total
42
Model margin
+2.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.072
- 42.1%Success rate44.4%
- +0.129EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.127EPA / rush-0.060
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.1%
- 39.2%Third-down rate37.2%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.65Points / drive1.97
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed-0.027
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 8–5 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. PHI are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 24/42 | 205 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 14/26 | 209 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.78