Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
40
Model margin
-0.5est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.147
- 43.2%Success rate38.6%
- -0.020EPA / dropback-0.067
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.251
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.6%
- 40.8%Third-down rate29.2%
- 53.2%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.40Points / drive1.18
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.048EPA / play allowed-0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/36 | 148 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chris Perry | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 16/23 | 310 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 25 | 115 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Lee Suggs | 13 | 19 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 6 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.48