Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
+0.7est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:18 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 10:06 | 4 | 4 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:35 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 7:00 | 12 | 86 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LV | Q1 0:58 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DEN | Q2 12:09 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| LV | Q2 8:26 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–3 |
| DEN | Q2 7:05 | 6 | 58 | Touchdown | 21–3 |
| LV | Q2 4:03 | 9 | 60 | Turnover | 21–3 |
| DEN | Q2 0:55 | 7 | 40 | End of half | 21–3 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 2 | Turnover | 21–3 |
| DEN | Q3 13:51 | 5 | 20 | Field goal | 24–3 |
| LV | Q3 11:05 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 24–3 |
| DEN | Q3 8:54 | 11 | 73 | Touchdown | 31–3 |
| LV | Q3 2:10 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 31–3 |
| DEN | Q3 0:33 | 4 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 31–3 |
| LV | Q4 13:15 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 31–3 |
| DEN | Q4 11:31 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 31–3 |
| LV | Q4 7:08 | 4 | -3 | Punt | 31–3 |
| DEN | Q4 5:47 | 8 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 31–3 |
| LV | Q4 1:55 | 6 | 11 | End of half | 31–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 11/20 | 190 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 38 | 176 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Tatum Bell | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Quentin Griffin | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.72
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.