Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
+0.7est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 11/20 | 190 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 38 | 176 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Tatum Bell | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Quentin Griffin | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.72
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.