Closing spread
DET -3
Total
45
Model margin
+0.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.110EPA / play-0.071
- 46.2%Success rate39.8%
- +0.241EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.046
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.0%
- 46.7%Third-down rate32.3%
- 66.5%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
- 2.02Points / drive1.23
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.082EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 25/38 | 257 | 2 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 1/1 | 20 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 21 | 81 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 10 | 62 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Tony Fisher | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 12/23 | 101 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Jones | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Reggie Swinton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.31