Closing spread
TEN -5.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.022EPA / play-0.012
- 41.4%Success rate41.5%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.091
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.8%
- 38.7%Third-down rate34.6%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.44Points / drive1.47
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.004EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 25–24 since 1999
HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 73 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 9:42 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 9:31 | 4 | 3 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 8:11 | 6 | 7 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 5:44 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 2:38 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 0:45 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q2 14:50 | 5 | 32 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q2 12:49 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| TEN | Q2 9:12 | 7 | 51 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| HOU | Q2 6:02 | 5 | 41 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| TEN | Q2 2:38 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 13–10 |
| HOU | Q2 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–10 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–10 |
| HOU | Q3 13:36 | 8 | 36 | Punt | 13–10 |
| TEN | Q3 9:26 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 13–10 |
| HOU | Q3 5:52 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 13–10 |
| TEN | Q3 3:12 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 13–10 |
| HOU | Q4 14:08 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 13–10 |
| TEN | Q4 13:38 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| HOU | Q4 13:29 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–10 |
| TEN | Q4 12:28 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 13–10 |
| HOU | Q4 9:25 | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| TEN | Q4 4:42 | 12 | 76 | Turnover | 20–10 |
| HOU | Q4 1:47 | 4 | 15 | End of half | 20–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 16/26 | 266 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Wells | 22 | 73 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Domanick Williams | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| David Carr | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 19/41 | 210 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.66
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.58