Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.174EPA / play-0.036
- 50.4%Success rate39.9%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.014
- +0.091EPA / rush-0.111
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.3%
- 47.6%Third-down rate36.7%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
- 2.37Points / drive1.27
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.130EPA / play allowed-0.011
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. JAX are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 23/33 | 315 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 19 | 75 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 24/36 | 298 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 19 | 66 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+1.21