Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.174EPA / play-0.036
- 50.4%Success rate39.9%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.014
- +0.091EPA / rush-0.111
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.3%
- 47.6%Third-down rate36.7%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
- 2.37Points / drive1.27
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.130EPA / play allowed-0.011
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. JAX are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 96 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 8:34 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 6:12 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 4:32 | 5 | 48 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q1 2:02 | 5 | 79 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| KC | Q2 14:08 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 3–14 |
| JAX | Q2 9:06 | 12 | 60 | Missed field goal | 3–14 |
| KC | Q2 1:50 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–14 |
| JAX | Q2 0:56 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 3–14 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 68 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| JAX | Q3 10:46 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–14 |
| KC | Q3 8:37 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 10–14 |
| JAX | Q3 6:41 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 10–14 |
| KC | Q3 3:48 | 12 | 67 | Punt | 10–14 |
| JAX | Q4 12:47 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 10–14 |
| KC | Q4 9:30 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 16–14 |
| JAX | Q4 4:45 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 16–14 |
| KC | Q4 3:47 | 3 | 9 | Missed field goal | 16–14 |
| JAX | Q4 2:16 | 8 | 67 | Touchdown | 16–22 |
| KC | Q4 0:45 | 6 | 27 | Turnover | 16–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 23/33 | 315 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 19 | 75 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 24/36 | 298 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 19 | 66 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+1.21