Closing spread
BUF -4.5
Total
30
Model margin
+4.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.173EPA / play-0.073
- 35.8%Success rate40.7%
- -0.181EPA / dropback-0.012
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.139
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.2%
- 34.6%Third-down rate35.8%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 0.97Points / drive1.71
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.054EPA / play allowed-0.135
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 40 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 12:13 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 9:03 | 2 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 8:15 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 8:15 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 6:27 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 4:34 | 12 | 61 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q2 12:49 | 11 | 48 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q2 7:12 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q2 4:02 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q2 2:07 | 6 | 54 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| BUF | Q2 0:52 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 10–7 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 41 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| MIA | Q3 11:18 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–10 |
| BUF | Q3 9:12 | 4 | 37 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| MIA | Q3 7:43 | 15 | 52 | Field goal | 13–17 |
| BUF | Q4 14:57 | 13 | 71 | Field goal | 13–20 |
| MIA | Q4 7:57 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 13–20 |
| BUF | Q4 6:22 | 11 | 93 | End of half | 13–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 12/23 | 136 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 18 | 91 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Brock Forsey | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 15/28 | 212 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 26 | 111 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Joe Burns | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
40.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.21
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.54