2004 · Week 6
Final
Edward Jones Dome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
STL -6.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. STL are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 27/40 | 286 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.45
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.