2004 · Week 6
Final
Edward Jones Dome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
STL -6.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. STL are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 71 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 12:40 | 6 | 43 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 9:14 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TB | Q1 6:26 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 4:12 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TB | Q1 1:42 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 13:02 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 14–7 |
| TB | Q2 12:11 | 6 | 32 | Missed field goal | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 9:24 | 10 | 44 | Punt | 14–7 |
| TB | Q2 4:10 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 3:12 | 4 | 5 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| TB | Q2 1:42 | 8 | 30 | Missed field goal | 14–14 |
| LA | Q2 0:20 | 3 | 24 | Missed field goal | 14–14 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 14–14 |
| LA | Q3 13:48 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 14–14 |
| TB | Q3 9:32 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–14 |
| LA | Q3 7:55 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–20 |
| TB | Q3 7:41 | 1 | 8 | Opp touchdown | 14–21 |
| TB | Q3 7:24 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–21 |
| LA | Q3 6:26 | 4 | 6 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| TB | Q3 4:11 | 6 | 25 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| LA | Q3 0:37 | 8 | 77 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| TB | Q4 10:46 | 9 | 53 | Turnover | 21–28 |
| LA | Q4 5:42 | 8 | 54 | Missed field goal | 21–28 |
| TB | Q4 1:09 | 5 | 51 | Turnover | 21–28 |
| LA | Q4 0:26 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 21–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 27/40 | 286 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.45
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.