Closing spread
GB -4
Total
44
Model margin
+5.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.110
- 42.6%Success rate46.2%
- -0.005EPA / dropback+0.241
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.085
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.4%
- 36.3%Third-down rate46.7%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate66.5%
- 1.44Points / drive2.02
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.080EPA / play allowed+0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4–1 since 1999
Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 23/35 | 308 | 1 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 23/29 | 258 | 2 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 1/1 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 15 | 163 | 10.9 | 2 |
| Najeh Davenport | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Craig Nall | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.48
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.04