Closing spread
DEN -7
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play-0.059
- 45.7%Success rate43.2%
- +0.154EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.114
- 10.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- 38.2%Third-down rate40.8%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate53.2%
- 1.84Points / drive1.40
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.069EPA / play allowed-0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 12:02 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 9:48 | 3 | 44 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 8:26 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 6:47 | 5 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 4:33 | 14 | 64 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q2 14:04 | 5 | 61 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q2 11:09 | 7 | 38 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q2 7:14 | 3 | -11 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 5:35 | 8 | 52 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| CIN | Q2 1:53 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q2 0:49 | 2 | 14 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| CIN | Q2 0:27 | 4 | 27 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–13 |
| CIN | Q3 13:58 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DEN | Q3 11:46 | 10 | 64 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| CIN | Q3 6:48 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–13 |
| DEN | Q3 5:14 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 10–13 |
| CIN | Q3 2:57 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| DEN | Q3 0:02 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 10–20 |
| CIN | Q4 12:45 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 10–20 |
| DEN | Q4 10:13 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 10–20 |
| CIN | Q4 9:05 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 10–23 |
| DEN | Q4 7:31 | 9 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 10–23 |
| CIN | Q4 4:05 | 5 | 39 | End of half | 10–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 23/40 | 221 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 24 | 110 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Darius Watts | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 12/21 | 198 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 24 | 119 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Kenny Watson | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Cliff Russell | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.66