Closing spread
SEA -6.5
Total
40
Model margin
+3.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.097
- 44.4%Success rate38.1%
- +0.090EPA / dropback-0.074
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.128
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.0%
- 37.2%Third-down rate34.7%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.81Points / drive1.19
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.004EPA / play allowed-0.081
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 14/41 | 195 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 22/36 | 212 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 26 | 106 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Troy Hambrick | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Larry Croom | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.39