Closing spread
SEA -6.5
Total
40
Model margin
+3.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.097
- 44.4%Success rate38.1%
- +0.090EPA / dropback-0.074
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.128
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.0%
- 37.2%Third-down rate34.7%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.81Points / drive1.19
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.004EPA / play allowed-0.081
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 34 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 12:47 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:53 | 6 | 43 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 8:23 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 6:30 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 4:38 | 9 | 38 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 0:47 | 12 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q2 8:45 | 6 | 26 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q2 6:28 | 6 | 33 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| SEA | Q2 3:01 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| ARI | Q2 2:55 | 5 | 13 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| SEA | Q2 1:01 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–13 |
| ARI | Q2 0:32 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–13 |
| SEA | Q2 0:08 | 2 | 30 | End of half | 3–13 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 3–13 |
| ARI | Q3 12:17 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–13 |
| SEA | Q3 10:56 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–13 |
| ARI | Q3 9:38 | 10 | 47 | Field goal | 3–16 |
| SEA | Q3 2:50 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 10–16 |
| ARI | Q3 0:05 | 4 | 11 | Opp touchdown | 17–16 |
| ARI | Q4 13:07 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 17–16 |
| SEA | Q4 9:51 | 3 | 1 | Safety | 17–18 |
| ARI | Q4 8:50 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–18 |
| SEA | Q4 7:06 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 17–18 |
| ARI | Q4 5:07 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 17–18 |
| SEA | Q4 2:49 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 17–18 |
| ARI | Q4 2:37 | 3 | 24 | Touchdown | 17–25 |
| SEA | Q4 1:53 | 4 | 25 | Turnover | 17–25 |
| ARI | Q4 1:20 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–25 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 14/41 | 195 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 22/36 | 212 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 26 | 106 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Troy Hambrick | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Larry Croom | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.39