Closing spread
SEA -8
Total
39
Model margin
+1.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.035
- 42.1%Success rate44.4%
- +0.129EPA / dropback+0.090
- -0.127EPA / rush-0.040
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- 39.2%Third-down rate37.2%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.65Points / drive1.81
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed+0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. SEA are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 19/36 | 248 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harris | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 21/30 | 201 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 32 | 195 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.27