Closing spread
SEA -8
Total
39
Model margin
+1.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.035
- 42.1%Success rate44.4%
- +0.129EPA / dropback+0.090
- -0.127EPA / rush-0.040
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- 39.2%Third-down rate37.2%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.65Points / drive1.81
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed+0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. SEA are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 9:12 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 5:49 | 6 | 39 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 2:42 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q2 14:47 | 13 | 89 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| CAR | Q2 9:07 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| SEA | Q2 5:14 | 4 | 59 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| CAR | Q2 3:07 | 8 | 22 | Punt | 7–14 |
| SEA | Q2 0:56 | 4 | 11 | End of half | 7–14 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 47 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| SEA | Q3 12:04 | 12 | 58 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| CAR | Q3 6:44 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–17 |
| SEA | Q3 4:32 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–17 |
| CAR | Q3 2:58 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 10–17 |
| SEA | Q3 0:11 | 6 | 20 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| CAR | Q4 13:27 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–20 |
| SEA | Q4 12:21 | 10 | 75 | Field goal | 10–23 |
| CAR | Q4 5:42 | 8 | 41 | Turnover | 10–23 |
| SEA | Q4 3:08 | 4 | 5 | Turnover on downs | 10–23 |
| CAR | Q4 2:04 | 4 | 70 | Touchdown | 17–23 |
| SEA | Q4 1:39 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 19/36 | 248 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harris | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 21/30 | 201 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 32 | 195 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.27