2004 · Week 8

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

28·14

Commanders

Washington

QB Mark Brunell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

GB -1

Total

40.5

Model margin

-1.8est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCommanders
  • +0.110EPA / play-0.121
  • 46.2%Success rate38.9%
  • +0.241EPA / dropback-0.102
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.145
  • 9.4%Explosive rate6.6%
  • 46.7%Third-down rate31.9%
  • 66.5%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.03
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
  • +0.082EPA / play allowed-0.104

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2WAS @ GB18–27GB
2022 · W7GB @ WAS21–23WAS
2021 · W7WAS @ GB10–24GB
2019 · W14WAS @ GB15–20GB
2018 · W3GB @ WAS17–31WAS
2016 · W11GB @ WAS24–42WAS
2015 · playoffsGB @ WAS35–18GB
2013 · W2WAS @ GB20–38GB

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre20/3328913

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green24702.92
Najeh Davenport4184.50

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell25/4421822
Rod Gardner0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis17704.10
Rod Gardner166.00
Mark Brunell155.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.2%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.70
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-1.82