2004 · Week 8
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
GB -1
Total
40.5
Model margin
-1.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.110EPA / play-0.121
- 46.2%Success rate38.9%
- +0.241EPA / dropback-0.102
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.145
- 9.4%Explosive rate6.6%
- 46.7%Third-down rate31.9%
- 66.5%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 2.02Points / drive1.03
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.082EPA / play allowed-0.104
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 11:17 | 11 | 67 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| WAS | Q1 5:55 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 2:23 | 10 | 73 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| WAS | Q2 13:41 | 8 | 20 | Punt | 10–0 |
| GB | Q2 9:17 | 5 | 76 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| WAS | Q2 6:28 | 3 | 23 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| GB | Q2 5:12 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| WAS | Q2 4:51 | 8 | 24 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| GB | Q2 1:50 | 3 | 43 | Turnover | 17–7 |
| WAS | Q2 0:36 | 3 | 2 | End of half | 17–7 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 23 | Field goal | 20–7 |
| WAS | Q3 12:49 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 20–7 |
| GB | Q3 9:54 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 20–7 |
| WAS | Q3 6:44 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–7 |
| GB | Q3 5:22 | 7 | 6 | Punt | 20–7 |
| WAS | Q3 1:28 | 11 | 58 | Missed field goal | 20–7 |
| GB | Q4 11:50 | 8 | 19 | Punt | 20–7 |
| WAS | Q4 7:59 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–7 |
| GB | Q4 6:36 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 20–7 |
| WAS | Q4 5:03 | 3 | 12 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| GB | Q4 4:46 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 20–14 |
| WAS | Q4 3:51 | 6 | 19 | Turnover | 20–14 |
| GB | Q4 2:25 | 4 | 36 | Touchdown | 28–14 |
| WAS | Q4 1:44 | 6 | 34 | End of half | 28–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 20/33 | 289 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 24 | 70 | 2.9 | 2 |
| Najeh Davenport | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 25/44 | 218 | 2 | 2 |
| Rod Gardner | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 17 | 70 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Rod Gardner | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.2%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.70
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-1.82