Closing spread
IND -1
Total
56.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.239EPA / play+0.174
- 53.8%Success rate50.4%
- +0.412EPA / dropback+0.235
- -0.005EPA / rush+0.091
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.6%
- 44.4%Third-down rate47.6%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 2.73Points / drive2.37
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.033EPA / play allowed+0.130
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. KC are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/44 | 472 | 5 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 27/34 | 389 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 32 | 143 | 4.5 | 3 |
| Johnnie Morton | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
49.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.94