Closing spread
IND -1
Total
56.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.239EPA / play+0.174
- 53.8%Success rate50.4%
- +0.412EPA / dropback+0.235
- -0.005EPA / rush+0.091
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.6%
- 44.4%Third-down rate47.6%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 2.73Points / drive2.37
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.033EPA / play allowed+0.130
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–6 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. KC are 5-13 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 3 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 13:48 | 10 | 41 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 8:39 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 4:18 | 6 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| IND | Q1 1:27 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| KC | Q1 0:10 | 3 | 12 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| IND | Q2 14:20 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 7–14 |
| KC | Q2 12:12 | 6 | 93 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| IND | Q2 9:08 | 5 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| KC | Q2 6:03 | 2 | 63 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| IND | Q2 4:59 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 14–28 |
| KC | Q2 3:23 | 9 | 60 | Field goal | 14–31 |
| IND | Q2 0:47 | 7 | 38 | Missed field goal | 14–31 |
| KC | Q2 0:04 | 1 | 19 | End of half | 14–31 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 14–31 |
| IND | Q3 12:48 | 3 | 92 | Touchdown | 21–31 |
| KC | Q3 11:43 | 11 | 56 | Turnover | 21–31 |
| IND | Q3 5:53 | 4 | 70 | Touchdown | 28–31 |
| KC | Q3 4:16 | 11 | 63 | Touchdown | 28–38 |
| IND | Q4 12:58 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 28–38 |
| KC | Q4 11:15 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 28–38 |
| IND | Q4 8:25 | 8 | 76 | Touchdown | 35–38 |
| KC | Q4 5:27 | 8 | 70 | Touchdown | 35–45 |
| IND | Q4 2:17 | 3 | 31 | Turnover | 35–45 |
| KC | Q4 1:35 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 35–45 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/44 | 472 | 5 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 27/34 | 389 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 32 | 143 | 4.5 | 3 |
| Johnnie Morton | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
49.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.94