2004 · Week 9

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Craig Krenzel

28·21

Giants

New York

QB Kurt Warner

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 71°F · wind 22mph

Closing spread

NYG -9

Total

34.5

Model margin

+6.5est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapGiants
  • -0.240EPA / play-0.028
  • 35.2%Success rate43.5%
  • -0.283EPA / dropback-0.017
  • -0.177EPA / rush-0.044
  • 6.8%Explosive rate8.2%
  • 25.7%Third-down rate29.5%
  • 43.9%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 0.78Points / drive1.65
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.102EPA / play allowed+0.008

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. NYG are 9-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10NYG @ CHI20–24CHI
2022 · W4CHI @ NYG12–20NYG
2021 · W17NYG @ CHI3–29CHI
2020 · W2NYG @ CHI13–17CHI
2019 · W12NYG @ CHI14–19CHI
2018 · W13CHI @ NYG27–30NYG
2016 · W11CHI @ NYG16–22NYG
2013 · W6NYG @ CHI21–27CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–NYG
CHIQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:173-1Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:1533Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:40633Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 8:03811Turnover0–7
NYGQ1 4:43221Touchdown0–14
CHIQ1 3:5435Punt0–14
NYGQ1 2:46638Turnover0–14
CHIQ1 0:183-9Punt0–14
NYGQ2 13:413-3Punt0–14
CHIQ2 12:3335Punt0–14
NYGQ2 10:4538Punt0–14
CHIQ2 8:4632Punt0–14
NYGQ2 7:4447Punt0–14
CHIQ2 6:02263Touchdown7–14
NYGQ2 5:1334Turnover7–14
CHIQ2 3:36316Touchdown14–14
NYGQ2 2:3510Turnover14–14
CHIQ2 2:1730Field goal17–14
NYGQ2 1:0910Turnover17–14
CHIQ2 0:46538Field goal20–14
NYGQ3 15:0039Punt20–14
CHIQ3 12:58511Turnover20–14
NYGQ3 10:342-6Turnover20–14
CHIQ3 9:4337Punt20–14
NYGQ3 8:09314Punt20–14
CHIQ3 6:184-10Punt20–14
NYGQ3 4:27861Turnover on downs20–14
CHIQ3 0:3037Punt20–14
NYGQ4 13:46521Punt20–14
CHIQ4 11:35676Touchdown28–14
NYGQ4 7:441251Turnover on downs28–14
CHIQ4 4:0534Punt28–14
NYGQ4 2:23311Touchdown28–21
CHIQ4 1:5600Turnover on downs28–21
NYGQ4 1:544-10Turnover on downs28–21
CHIQ4 1:0000End of half28–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Craig Krenzel8/2114410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Thomas281103.92
Craig Krenzel6122.00

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner18/3619512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber21723.42
Mike Cloud3165.30
Kurt Warner133.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.2%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.01
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.50