Closing spread
NYG -9
Total
34.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.240EPA / play-0.028
- 35.2%Success rate43.5%
- -0.283EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.044
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- 25.7%Third-down rate29.5%
- 43.9%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 0.78Points / drive1.65
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.102EPA / play allowed+0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. NYG are 9-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Krenzel | 8/21 | 144 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 28 | 110 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Craig Krenzel | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 18/36 | 195 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 21 | 72 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Mike Cloud | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.01
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.50