Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
34
Model margin
+4.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
6.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.040EPA / play-0.073
- 45.5%Success rate40.7%
- +0.023EPA / dropback-0.012
- +0.058EPA / rush-0.139
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- 42.9%Third-down rate35.8%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.86Points / drive1.71
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.048EPA / play allowed-0.135
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 7/15 | 141 | 1 | 1 |
| Quincy Carter | 2/3 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 19 | 67 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 18/30 | 184 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 37 | 132 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
6.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.98