Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
40.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.155
- 44.4%Success rate37.7%
- +0.090EPA / dropback-0.120
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.212
- 9.3%Explosive rate5.6%
- 37.2%Third-down rate33.2%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.81Points / drive1.10
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.8%
- +0.004EPA / play allowed+0.068
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 13:32 | 3 | 21 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 12:08 | 8 | 46 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 7:27 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 5:57 | 2 | 33 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SF | Q1 5:15 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| SEA | Q1 1:22 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 7–14 |
| SF | Q1 0:31 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–14 |
| SEA | Q2 14:06 | 15 | 96 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| SF | Q2 6:37 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–14 |
| SEA | Q2 4:33 | 7 | 39 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| SF | Q2 1:57 | 8 | 56 | Field goal | 21–17 |
| SEA | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–17 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 75 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| SEA | Q3 12:41 | 3 | 73 | Touchdown | 28–24 |
| SF | Q3 11:16 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 28–24 |
| SEA | Q3 10:19 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 28–24 |
| SF | Q3 9:25 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 28–24 |
| SEA | Q3 6:10 | 11 | 94 | Touchdown | 35–24 |
| SF | Q3 1:32 | 10 | 51 | Field goal | 35–27 |
| SEA | Q4 11:09 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 35–27 |
| SF | Q4 8:38 | 2 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 42–27 |
| SF | Q4 8:27 | 7 | 8 | Punt | 42–27 |
| SEA | Q4 5:19 | 8 | 38 | End of half | 42–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/28 | 285 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 26 | 160 | 6.2 | 2 |
| Kerry Carter | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 23/35 | 259 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.45