Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
40.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.155
- 44.4%Success rate37.7%
- +0.090EPA / dropback-0.120
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.212
- 9.3%Explosive rate5.6%
- 37.2%Third-down rate33.2%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.81Points / drive1.10
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.8%
- +0.004EPA / play allowed+0.068
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/28 | 285 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 26 | 160 | 6.2 | 2 |
| Kerry Carter | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 23/35 | 259 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.45