2004 · Week 10

Final / OT

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Kyle Boller

20·17

Jets

New York

QB Quincy Carter

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -1

Total

32

Model margin

+2.1est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapJets
  • -0.113EPA / play+0.040
  • 38.4%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.127EPA / dropback+0.023
  • -0.096EPA / rush+0.058
  • 7.6%Explosive rate10.3%
  • 35.0%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 51.3%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.86
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
  • -0.136EPA / play allowed-0.048

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 10–1 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. NYJ are 3-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NYJ @ BAL10–23BAL
2022 · W1BAL @ NYJ24–9BAL
2019 · W15NYJ @ BAL21–42BAL
2016 · W7BAL @ NYJ16–24NYJ
2013 · W12NYJ @ BAL3–19BAL
2011 · W4NYJ @ BAL17–34BAL
2010 · W1BAL @ NYJ10–9BAL
2007 · W2NYJ @ BAL13–20BAL

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Boller19/3321320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis30712.40
Kyle Boller252.50

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Quincy Carter13/2217500
LaMont Jordan0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin281194.32
Quincy Carter5224.40
LaMont Jordan3155.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.55
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.10