Closing spread
BAL -1
Total
32
Model margin
+2.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play+0.040
- 38.4%Success rate45.5%
- -0.127EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.096EPA / rush+0.058
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.3%
- 35.0%Third-down rate42.9%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.22Points / drive1.86
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.136EPA / play allowed-0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–1 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. NYJ are 3-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 15 | 76 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 5:16 | 7 | 50 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 0:34 | 4 | 12 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q2 13:35 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 12:13 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q2 9:52 | 3 | -16 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 7:57 | 8 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| BAL | Q2 3:43 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 2:30 | 3 | 48 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| BAL | Q2 1:33 | 7 | 31 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:40 | 3 | 17 | End of half | 7–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–14 |
| BAL | Q3 13:31 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 8:34 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 10–14 |
| BAL | Q3 5:13 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 4:07 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–14 |
| BAL | Q3 2:41 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 0:33 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 10–14 |
| BAL | Q4 11:57 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NYJ | Q4 10:56 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–14 |
| BAL | Q4 9:24 | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| NYJ | Q4 4:13 | 9 | 52 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| BAL | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–17 |
| NYJ | OT | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–17 |
| BAL | OT | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–17 |
| NYJ | OT | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–17 |
| BAL | OT | 6 | 32 | Field goal | 20–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 19/33 | 213 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 30 | 71 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 13/22 | 175 | 0 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 28 | 119 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Quincy Carter | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.55
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.10