Closing spread
ARI -1
Total
39
Model margin
+3.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.028EPA / play-0.097
- 43.5%Success rate38.1%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.074
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.128
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.0%
- 29.5%Third-down rate34.7%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.65Points / drive1.19
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.008EPA / play allowed-0.081
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. ARI are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 19/30 | 193 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 21 | 108 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 12/24 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 19 | 67 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Troy Hambrick | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.79