Closing spread
ARI -1
Total
39
Model margin
+3.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.028EPA / play-0.097
- 43.5%Success rate38.1%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.074
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.128
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.0%
- 29.5%Third-down rate34.7%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.65Points / drive1.19
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.008EPA / play allowed-0.081
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. ARI are 12-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 10:13 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 3:38 | 12 | 31 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| NYG | Q2 13:36 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| ARI | Q2 9:03 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 14–3 |
| NYG | Q2 7:26 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 14–3 |
| ARI | Q2 3:18 | 11 | 46 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| NYG | Q2 0:39 | 1 | 9 | End of half | 14–10 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 64 | Missed field goal | 14–10 |
| ARI | Q3 8:01 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 14–10 |
| NYG | Q3 6:39 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 14–10 |
| ARI | Q3 5:20 | 9 | 37 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| NYG | Q3 1:09 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 14–17 |
| ARI | Q4 12:41 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 14–17 |
| NYG | Q4 10:07 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–17 |
| ARI | Q4 9:03 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–17 |
| NYG | Q4 8:38 | 8 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 14–17 |
| ARI | Q4 6:04 | 4 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 14–17 |
| NYG | Q4 3:53 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 14–17 |
| ARI | Q4 2:32 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 14–17 |
| NYG | Q4 1:51 | 6 | 22 | Turnover on downs | 14–17 |
| ARI | Q4 1:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 19/30 | 193 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 21 | 108 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 12/24 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 19 | 67 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Troy Hambrick | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.79