Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
-1.9est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play-0.147
- 44.9%Success rate38.6%
- +0.136EPA / dropback-0.067
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.251
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.6%
- 44.9%Third-down rate29.2%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.83Points / drive1.18
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.133EPA / play allowed-0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 10/16 | 134 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 29 | 103 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Willie Parker | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Dante Brown | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 2 | -7 | -3.5 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 7/16 | 110 | 0 | 1 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 5/9 | 64 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Suggs | 18 | 38 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.88