Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
40
Model margin
-0.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.028
- 41.4%Success rate43.5%
- -0.047EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.044
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- 36.1%Third-down rate29.5%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.69Points / drive1.65
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.024EPA / play allowed+0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 8–6 since 1999
ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. NYG are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12/20 | 115 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 15 | 104 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dez White | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 17/37 | 162 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 21 | 107 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.34
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.58