Closing spread
MIN -8
Total
48
Model margin
+4.1est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.162
- 39.8%Success rate50.0%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.287
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.097
- 9.0%Explosive rate10.7%
- 32.3%Third-down rate52.5%
- 51.0%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.23Points / drive2.26
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed+0.107
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 12/19 | 91 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 19 | 100 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Eddie Drummond | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 22/32 | 233 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Onterrio Smith | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.10