2004 · Week 11

Final

Jets

New York

QB Quincy Carter

10·7

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jeff Garcia

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1.5

Total

38

Model margin

+0.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.040EPA / play-0.147
  • 45.5%Success rate38.6%
  • +0.023EPA / dropback-0.067
  • +0.058EPA / rush-0.251
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 42.9%Third-down rate29.2%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.18
  • 1.5%Turnover rate3.8%
  • -0.048EPA / play allowed-0.002

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 10–6 since 1999

NYJ have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. CLE are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CLE @ NYJ12–17NYJ
2025 · W10CLE @ NYJ20–27NYJ
2023 · W17NYJ @ CLE20–37CLE
2022 · W2NYJ @ CLE31–30NYJ
2020 · W16CLE @ NYJ16–23NYJ
2019 · W2CLE @ NYJ23–3CLE
2018 · W3NYJ @ CLE17–21CLE
2017 · W5NYJ @ CLE17–14NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–CLE
NYJQ1 15:00631Missed field goal0–0
CLEQ1 11:5233Punt0–0
NYJQ1 10:193-3Punt0–0
CLEQ1 8:553-4Punt0–0
NYJQ1 7:573-2Punt0–0
CLEQ1 6:49415Punt0–0
NYJQ1 5:47515Punt0–0
CLEQ1 2:55536Punt0–0
NYJQ1 0:03414Punt0–0
CLEQ2 13:20642Touchdown0–7
NYJQ2 11:0433Punt0–7
CLEQ2 9:1238Punt0–7
NYJQ2 7:2436Punt0–7
CLEQ2 5:22631Missed field goal0–7
NYJQ2 2:03616Punt0–7
CLEQ2 0:5939Punt0–7
NYJQ2 0:0100End of half0–7
CLEQ3 15:0030Punt0–7
NYJQ3 14:29843Field goal3–7
CLEQ3 9:0636Punt3–7
NYJQ3 6:4333Punt3–7
NYJQ3 5:4734Turnover3–7
CLEQ3 4:141653Missed field goal3–7
NYJQ4 11:271075Touchdown10–7
CLEQ4 5:32417Punt10–7
NYJQ4 3:55634End of half10–7

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Quincy Carter11/2011611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin17885.20
LaMont Jordan18734.10
Quincy Carter4-4-1.00

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia10/178810
Kelly Holcomb4/103200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lee Suggs17623.60
William Green8324.00
Dennis Northcutt252.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.8%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.55
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.29