Closing spread
NYJ -1.5
Total
38
Model margin
+0.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.040EPA / play-0.147
- 45.5%Success rate38.6%
- +0.023EPA / dropback-0.067
- +0.058EPA / rush-0.251
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.6%
- 42.9%Third-down rate29.2%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.86Points / drive1.18
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.048EPA / play allowed-0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CLE are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 11/20 | 116 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 17 | 88 | 5.2 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 18 | 73 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 10/17 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 4/10 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Suggs | 17 | 62 | 3.6 | 0 |
| William Green | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.55
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.29