Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
36
Model margin
+0.8est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.012EPA / play-0.036
- 41.5%Success rate39.9%
- +0.035EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.3%
- 34.6%Third-down rate36.7%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
- 1.47Points / drive1.27
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed-0.011
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 14:00 | 5 | 20 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 11:10 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 9:05 | 8 | 47 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 4:35 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 3:44 | 5 | 27 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q1 0:58 | 13 | 72 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| TEN | Q2 10:14 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| JAX | Q2 6:48 | 10 | 55 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| TEN | Q2 1:06 | 2 | -5 | End of half | 10–6 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 10–6 |
| JAX | Q3 13:17 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 10–6 |
| TEN | Q3 9:21 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 10–6 |
| JAX | Q3 6:02 | 10 | 64 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| TEN | Q3 1:02 | 8 | 37 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| JAX | Q4 12:35 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 10–13 |
| TEN | Q4 9:59 | 3 | -4 | Safety | 10–15 |
| JAX | Q4 9:12 | 4 | 23 | Missed field goal | 10–15 |
| TEN | Q4 7:19 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–15 |
| JAX | Q4 5:49 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–15 |
| TEN | Q4 4:08 | 6 | 57 | Touchdown | 18–15 |
| JAX | Q4 3:31 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 18–15 |
| TEN | Q4 2:35 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 18–15 |
| JAX | Q4 0:25 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 18–15 |
| TEN | Q4 0:17 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 18–15 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 18/30 | 209 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 24 | 95 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Troy Fleming | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erron Kinney | 2 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 13/27 | 129 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 21 | 103 | 4.9 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.52
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.83