Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
36
Model margin
+0.8est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.012EPA / play-0.036
- 41.5%Success rate39.9%
- +0.035EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.3%
- 34.6%Third-down rate36.7%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
- 1.47Points / drive1.27
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed-0.011
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 18/30 | 209 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 24 | 95 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Troy Fleming | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erron Kinney | 2 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 13/27 | 129 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 21 | 103 | 4.9 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.52
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.83