2004 · Week 12

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Craig Krenzel

7·21

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Drew Henson

Texas Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

36

Model margin

+5.2est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.240EPA / play-0.050
  • 35.2%Success rate42.6%
  • -0.283EPA / dropback-0.005
  • -0.177EPA / rush-0.108
  • 6.8%Explosive rate9.1%
  • 25.7%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 43.9%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 0.78Points / drive1.44
  • 3.4%Turnover rate3.5%
  • -0.102EPA / play allowed+0.080

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 5–5 since 1999

Meetings average 53.9 points. DAL are 5-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3DAL @ CHI14–31CHI
2022 · W8CHI @ DAL29–49DAL
2019 · W14DAL @ CHI24–31CHI
2016 · W3CHI @ DAL17–31DAL
2014 · W14DAL @ CHI41–28DAL
2013 · W14DAL @ CHI28–45CHI
2012 · W4CHI @ DAL34–18CHI
2010 · W2CHI @ DAL27–20CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DAL
CHIQ1 15:003-4Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:07562Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 10:43728Punt0–7
DALQ1 7:3733Punt0–7
CHIQ1 6:0210Turnover0–7
DALQ1 5:593-2Punt0–7
CHIQ1 4:35614Punt0–7
DALQ1 0:45622Missed field goal0–7
CHIQ2 12:53413Punt0–7
DALQ2 10:5836Punt0–7
CHIQ2 9:2739Punt0–7
DALQ2 7:50521Opp touchdown7–7
DALQ2 5:5739Punt7–7
CHIQ2 4:1133Punt7–7
DALQ2 3:223-2Punt7–7
CHIQ2 1:41109Punt7–7
DALQ3 15:0037Punt7–7
CHIQ3 13:0439Punt7–7
DALQ3 11:13621Turnover7–7
DALQ3 8:3130Punt7–7
CHIQ3 6:35429Missed field goal7–7
DALQ3 4:58412Punt7–7
CHIQ3 2:5737Punt7–7
DALQ3 0:45861Touchdown7–14
CHIQ4 11:0710Turnover7–14
DALQ4 10:47742Touchdown7–21
CHIQ4 7:0032Punt7–21
DALQ4 5:0248Punt7–21
CHIQ4 3:11921Turnover7–21
DALQ4 1:403-3End of half7–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jonathan Quinn10/218602
Craig Krenzel5/104600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones14463.30
Craig Krenzel221.00
Bobby Wade111.00
Anthony Thomas300.00

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde9/149211
Drew Henson4/123101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Julius Jones331504.52
Eddie George382.70
Terrance Copper1-1-1.00
Vinny Testaverde3-3-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.95
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.73
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.24