Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
36
Model margin
+5.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.240EPA / play-0.050
- 35.2%Success rate42.6%
- -0.283EPA / dropback-0.005
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.108
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.1%
- 25.7%Third-down rate36.3%
- 43.9%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 0.78Points / drive1.44
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.102EPA / play allowed+0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 53.9 points. DAL are 5-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quinn | 10/21 | 86 | 0 | 2 |
| Craig Krenzel | 5/10 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 14 | 46 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Craig Krenzel | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 9/14 | 92 | 1 | 1 |
| Drew Henson | 4/12 | 31 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 33 | 150 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.73
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.24