Closing spread
CIN -6
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.147EPA / play-0.059
- 38.6%Success rate43.2%
- -0.067EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.251EPA / rush-0.114
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- 29.2%Third-down rate40.8%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate53.2%
- 1.18Points / drive1.40
- 3.8%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.002EPA / play allowed-0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| CLE | Q1 14:35 | 1 | 7 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 14:27 | 3 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q1 12:58 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CIN | Q1 11:15 | 3 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| CLE | Q1 10:07 | 8 | 65 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| CIN | Q1 5:14 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| CLE | Q1 3:16 | 7 | 21 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| CIN | Q2 14:56 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 13–14 |
| CLE | Q2 11:41 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–14 |
| CIN | Q2 9:47 | 7 | 54 | Touchdown | 13–21 |
| CLE | Q2 6:19 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 13–21 |
| CIN | Q2 4:11 | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 13–24 |
| CLE | Q2 1:17 | 3 | 21 | Turnover | 13–24 |
| CIN | Q2 0:19 | 2 | 22 | Field goal | 13–27 |
| CLE | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–27 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 64 | Touchdown | 20–27 |
| CIN | Q3 13:34 | 3 | 72 | Touchdown | 20–34 |
| CLE | Q3 12:05 | 7 | 53 | Touchdown | 27–34 |
| CIN | Q3 8:35 | 7 | 58 | Touchdown | 27–41 |
| CLE | Q3 4:34 | 2 | 69 | Touchdown | 34–41 |
| CIN | Q3 3:39 | 9 | 42 | Field goal | 34–44 |
| CLE | Q4 14:15 | 7 | 77 | Touchdown | 41–44 |
| CIN | Q4 10:51 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 47–44 |
| CLE | Q4 10:22 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 48–44 |
| CIN | Q4 10:22 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 48–51 |
| CLE | Q4 6:29 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 48–51 |
| CIN | Q4 4:41 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 48–51 |
| CLE | Q4 2:37 | 4 | 14 | Opp touchdown | 48–58 |
| CLE | Q4 1:43 | 7 | 67 | Turnover on downs | 48–58 |
| CIN | Q4 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 48–58 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 30/39 | 413 | 5 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 15 | 75 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 22/29 | 251 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 26 | 202 | 7.8 | 2 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.77
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.28