Closing spread
CIN -6
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.147EPA / play-0.059
- 38.6%Success rate43.2%
- -0.067EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.251EPA / rush-0.114
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- 29.2%Third-down rate40.8%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate53.2%
- 1.18Points / drive1.40
- 3.8%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.002EPA / play allowed-0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 30/39 | 413 | 5 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 15 | 75 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 22/29 | 251 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 26 | 202 | 7.8 | 2 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.77
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.28