Closing spread
DEN -11.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 36 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 11:38 | 5 | 13 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:37 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 5:40 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 1:17 | 6 | 39 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q2 13:01 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q2 12:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q2 10:53 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q2 8:36 | 4 | 9 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q2 6:55 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q2 1:55 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q2 1:02 | 2 | 88 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 0:44 | 3 | 51 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 16 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| LV | Q3 13:36 | 2 | 36 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| DEN | Q3 12:50 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 13–10 |
| LV | Q3 10:13 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 13–10 |
| DEN | Q3 8:04 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–10 |
| LV | Q3 6:27 | 2 | -7 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| DEN | Q3 5:18 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| LV | Q3 5:00 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 13–10 |
| DEN | Q3 2:42 | 6 | 83 | Touchdown | 13–17 |
| LV | Q4 14:26 | 2 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 13–24 |
| LV | Q4 13:26 | 8 | 66 | Turnover | 13–24 |
| DEN | Q4 10:07 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 13–24 |
| LV | Q4 8:00 | 4 | 41 | Touchdown | 19–24 |
| DEN | Q4 6:11 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 19–24 |
| LV | Q4 3:37 | 6 | 82 | Touchdown | 25–24 |
| DEN | Q4 1:49 | 6 | 44 | Missed field goal | 25–24 |
| LV | Q4 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 25–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 14/23 | 245 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 28 | 102 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.41
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.