Closing spread
GB -7
Total
51
Model margin
+4.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4 since 1999
GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. GB are 12-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:22 | 3 | 11 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 12:23 | 10 | 55 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 7:02 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 4:11 | 13 | 74 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| GB | Q2 12:47 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| LA | Q2 7:25 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 3–14 |
| GB | Q2 5:16 | 5 | 83 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| LA | Q2 2:50 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| GB | Q2 0:30 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 10–21 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 32 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| GB | Q3 13:04 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 10–21 |
| LA | Q3 11:22 | 13 | 61 | Turnover on downs | 10–21 |
| GB | Q3 3:42 | 4 | 71 | Touchdown | 10–28 |
| LA | Q3 1:44 | 7 | 77 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| GB | Q4 14:19 | 10 | 65 | Field goal | 17–31 |
| LA | Q4 8:29 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 17–31 |
| GB | Q4 6:15 | 7 | 79 | Touchdown | 17–38 |
| LA | Q4 1:52 | 5 | 25 | Opp touchdown | 17–45 |
| GB | Q4 0:46 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 17–45 |
| LA | Q4 0:46 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–45 |
| LA | Q4 0:40 | 3 | 6 | End of half | 17–45 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 18/27 | 215 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najeh Davenport | 19 | 178 | 9.4 | 1 |
| Tony Fisher | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.95
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.