Closing spread
HOU -2
Total
43
Model margin
+3.5est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.012EPA / play-0.022
- 41.5%Success rate41.4%
- +0.035EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.134
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.3%
- 34.6%Third-down rate38.7%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.47Points / drive1.44
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed-0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 25–24 since 1999
HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 10:13 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q1 9:21 | 6 | 42 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| HOU | Q1 5:44 | 9 | 60 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| TEN | Q1 0:35 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 14–3 |
| HOU | Q2 13:24 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 14–3 |
| TEN | Q2 12:04 | 4 | 24 | Touchdown | 21–3 |
| HOU | Q2 10:38 | 7 | 62 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| TEN | Q2 6:46 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 21–10 |
| HOU | Q2 2:27 | 8 | 48 | Missed field goal | 21–10 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| TEN | Q3 9:20 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–17 |
| HOU | Q3 7:49 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 21–17 |
| TEN | Q3 6:14 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 21–17 |
| HOU | Q3 4:33 | 4 | 27 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| TEN | Q3 2:35 | 12 | 63 | Turnover | 21–24 |
| HOU | Q4 10:24 | 8 | 20 | Punt | 21–24 |
| TEN | Q4 6:25 | 8 | 41 | Turnover | 21–24 |
| HOU | Q4 1:47 | 2 | 44 | Touchdown | 21–31 |
| TEN | Q4 1:34 | 5 | 41 | End of half | 21–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 25/34 | 227 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 21 | 90 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 21/30 | 201 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 16 | 129 | 8.1 | 1 |
| David Carr | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.66
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.47