2004 · Week 13

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB John Navarre

12·26

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -6

Total

37

Model margin

+1.3est.

DET perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapLions
  • -0.097EPA / play-0.071
  • 38.1%Success rate39.8%
  • -0.074EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.046
  • 7.0%Explosive rate9.0%
  • 34.7%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
  • 1.19Points / drive1.23
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.081EPA / play allowed+0.013

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 10–8–1 since 1999

DET have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. DET are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3DET @ ARI20–13DET
2021 · W15ARI @ DET12–30DET
2020 · W3DET @ ARI26–23DET
2019 · W1DET @ ARI27–27Tie
2018 · W14DET @ ARI17–3DET
2017 · W1ARI @ DET23–35DET
2015 · W5ARI @ DET42–17ARI
2014 · W11DET @ ARI6–14ARI

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Navarre18/4016814

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Larry Croom18492.70
Josh Scobey5234.60
Obafemi Ayanbadejo3227.30

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington15/2719611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Jones261967.51
Joey Harrington6193.20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.42
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.32