Closing spread
DET -6
Total
37
Model margin
+1.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play-0.071
- 38.1%Success rate39.8%
- -0.074EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.046
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.0%
- 34.7%Third-down rate32.3%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
- 1.19Points / drive1.23
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.081EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–9–1 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. DET are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 13:47 | 5 | 20 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DET | Q1 11:09 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q1 9:17 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DET | Q1 8:19 | 9 | 81 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q1 3:05 | 6 | 23 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| DET | Q2 14:13 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–7 |
| ARI | Q2 12:32 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DET | Q2 10:41 | 5 | 61 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| ARI | Q2 8:13 | 12 | 85 | Touchdown | 12–14 |
| DET | Q2 3:40 | 2 | 74 | Turnover | 12–14 |
| ARI | Q2 2:44 | 12 | 42 | Turnover | 12–14 |
| DET | Q2 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 12–14 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 12–14 |
| DET | Q3 13:27 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 12–14 |
| ARI | Q3 12:31 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 12–14 |
| DET | Q3 11:07 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 12–17 |
| ARI | Q3 7:32 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 12–17 |
| DET | Q3 6:01 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 12–17 |
| ARI | Q3 5:02 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 12–17 |
| DET | Q3 4:43 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 12–20 |
| ARI | Q3 3:17 | 7 | 14 | Punt | 12–20 |
| DET | Q4 14:51 | 8 | 72 | Field goal | 12–23 |
| ARI | Q4 10:00 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 12–23 |
| DET | Q4 8:00 | 6 | 12 | Field goal | 12–26 |
| ARI | Q4 5:13 | 8 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 12–26 |
| DET | Q4 2:14 | 5 | 30 | End of half | 12–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Navarre | 18/40 | 168 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Croom | 18 | 49 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Josh Scobey | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 15/27 | 196 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 26 | 196 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Joey Harrington | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.42
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.32