Closing spread
BUF -5
Total
34
Model margin
-0.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.173
- 40.7%Success rate35.8%
- -0.012EPA / dropback-0.181
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.159
- 8.2%Explosive rate6.9%
- 35.8%Third-down rate34.6%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.71Points / drive0.97
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.7%
- -0.135EPA / play allowed-0.054
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 19/30 | 277 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 23 | 91 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burns | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 25/51 | 303 | 3 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Minor | 20 | 82 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Vick King | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Leonard Henry | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
40.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.62