Closing spread
BUF -5
Total
34
Model margin
-0.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.173
- 40.7%Success rate35.8%
- -0.012EPA / dropback-0.181
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.159
- 8.2%Explosive rate6.9%
- 35.8%Third-down rate34.6%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.71Points / drive0.97
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.7%
- -0.135EPA / play allowed-0.054
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 14:47 | 6 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| BUF | Q1 12:16 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q1 10:35 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| BUF | Q1 10:22 | 5 | 36 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| MIA | Q1 7:53 | 4 | 32 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| BUF | Q1 5:54 | 4 | -4 | Punt | 14–14 |
| MIA | Q1 4:31 | 6 | 35 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| BUF | Q1 2:35 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–21 |
| MIA | Q1 0:25 | 5 | 17 | Field goal | 14–24 |
| BUF | Q2 13:21 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 14–24 |
| MIA | Q2 11:40 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 14–24 |
| BUF | Q2 10:37 | 6 | 78 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| MIA | Q2 8:39 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 21–24 |
| BUF | Q2 7:37 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 21–24 |
| BUF | Q2 6:06 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 21–24 |
| MIA | Q2 4:35 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 21–24 |
| BUF | Q2 1:56 | 4 | 6 | Missed field goal | 21–24 |
| MIA | Q2 0:52 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 21–24 |
| BUF | Q2 0:14 | 2 | 5 | End of half | 21–24 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 21–24 |
| BUF | Q3 12:19 | 9 | 45 | Punt | 21–24 |
| MIA | Q3 7:15 | 8 | 70 | Turnover | 21–24 |
| BUF | Q3 3:16 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 21–24 |
| MIA | Q3 0:51 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 27–24 |
| BUF | Q3 0:02 | 1 | 69 | Touchdown | 28–24 |
| MIA | Q4 15:00 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 28–24 |
| BUF | Q4 13:37 | 3 | 34 | Touchdown | 35–24 |
| MIA | Q4 12:41 | 16 | 76 | Touchdown | 35–32 |
| BUF | Q4 7:14 | 7 | 51 | Punt | 35–32 |
| MIA | Q4 3:06 | 3 | 21 | Opp touchdown | 42–32 |
| MIA | Q4 1:55 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 42–32 |
| BUF | Q4 1:34 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 42–32 |
| MIA | Q4 0:23 | 4 | 20 | End of half | 42–32 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 19/30 | 277 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 23 | 91 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burns | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 25/51 | 303 | 3 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Minor | 20 | 82 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Vick King | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Leonard Henry | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
40.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.62