Closing spread
BAL -6.5
Total
37
Model margin
+2.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.113
- 43.2%Success rate38.4%
- -0.020EPA / dropback-0.127
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.096
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.6%
- 40.8%Third-down rate35.0%
- 53.2%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.40Points / drive1.22
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.048EPA / play allowed-0.136
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 29/36 | 382 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 19 | 56 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 19/33 | 172 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 23 | 139 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Jamel White | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.81