Closing spread
SD -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:27 | 4 | 43 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 12:01 | 9 | 63 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 8:29 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 8:19 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 7:36 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 6:06 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 4:26 | 6 | 15 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 1:00 | 5 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 13:27 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q2 11:58 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 9:54 | 6 | 21 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| DEN | Q2 7:05 | 11 | -6 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 4:21 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 7–14 |
| DEN | Q2 1:31 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 1:30 | 5 | 4 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 29 | Punt | 7–17 |
| DEN | Q3 10:03 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LAC | Q3 9:24 | 9 | 43 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| DEN | Q3 5:12 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LAC | Q3 3:26 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–20 |
| DEN | Q3 1:44 | 6 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| LAC | Q4 14:18 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–20 |
| DEN | Q4 13:13 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 17–20 |
| LAC | Q4 9:26 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–20 |
| DEN | Q4 7:46 | 7 | 73 | Turnover | 17–20 |
| LAC | Q4 3:39 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 17–20 |
| DEN | Q4 0:50 | 7 | 23 | End of half | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 16/40 | 278 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Tatum Bell | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.72
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.