Closing spread
PHI -5.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.110EPA / play+0.072
- 46.2%Success rate44.4%
- +0.241EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.060
- 9.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- 46.7%Third-down rate37.2%
- 66.5%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 2.02Points / drive1.97
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.082EPA / play allowed-0.027
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 11–7 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 13:08 | 10 | 26 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 8:53 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 8:09 | 4 | 58 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 5:57 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 3:34 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 1:38 | 5 | 40 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q2 14:55 | 9 | 93 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| GB | Q2 10:27 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 0–14 |
| PHI | Q2 7:48 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| GB | Q2 5:37 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–21 |
| PHI | Q2 4:25 | 5 | 21 | Touchdown | 0–28 |
| GB | Q2 3:04 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–28 |
| PHI | Q2 2:01 | 2 | 32 | Touchdown | 0–35 |
| GB | Q2 1:48 | 12 | 48 | Field goal | 3–35 |
| PHI | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–35 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 64 | Field goal | 3–38 |
| GB | Q3 11:38 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–38 |
| PHI | Q3 10:08 | 8 | 49 | Field goal | 3–41 |
| GB | Q3 7:09 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–41 |
| PHI | Q3 5:39 | 6 | 48 | Field goal | 3–44 |
| GB | Q3 2:34 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 3–44 |
| PHI | Q3 0:17 | 7 | 60 | Field goal | 3–47 |
| GB | Q4 11:16 | 7 | 10 | Touchdown | 10–47 |
| PHI | Q4 8:26 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 10–47 |
| GB | Q4 6:05 | 9 | 76 | Touchdown | 17–47 |
| PHI | Q4 2:21 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–47 |
| GB | Q4 1:00 | 2 | 10 | End of half | 17–47 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 14/29 | 131 | 0 | 2 |
| Craig Nall | 8/11 | 95 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 32/43 | 464 | 5 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 7 | 63 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.05