Closing spread
NYJ -7
Total
42
Model margin
+2.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.022EPA / play+0.040
- 41.4%Success rate45.5%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.134EPA / rush+0.058
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- 38.7%Third-down rate42.9%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.44Points / drive1.86
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.004EPA / play allowed-0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.2 points. NYJ are 8-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 12/25 | 157 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 17 | 52 | 3.1 | 1 |
| David Carr | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 20/27 | 155 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 23 | 134 | 5.8 | 1 |
| LaMont Jordan | 11 | 60 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.59