2004 · Week 13

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

17·16

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Byron Leftwich

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

35.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapJaguars
  • +0.044EPA / play-0.036
  • 44.9%Success rate39.9%
  • +0.136EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.111
  • 10.4%Explosive rate7.3%
  • 44.9%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.27
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
  • -0.133EPA / play allowed-0.011

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–9 since 1999

Meetings average 37.9 points. JAX are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8JAX @ PIT20–10JAX
2020 · W11PIT @ JAX27–3PIT
2018 · W11PIT @ JAX20–16PIT
2017 · playoffsJAX @ PIT45–42JAX
2017 · W5JAX @ PIT30–9JAX
2014 · W5PIT @ JAX17–9PIT
2011 · W6JAX @ PIT13–17PIT
2008 · W5PIT @ JAX26–21PIT

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger14/1722120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley17513.00
Ben Roethlisberger34013.30
Jerome Bettis3175.70
Willie Parker11212.00
Hines Ward100.00

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Byron Leftwich16/2726810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor27762.80
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala6203.30
Byron Leftwich144.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.5%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.15