Closing spread
STL -11
Total
49
Model margin
+5.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:07 | 13 | 68 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SF | Q1 4:43 | 5 | 52 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LA | Q1 2:23 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 3–3 |
| SF | Q1 0:33 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LA | Q2 11:46 | 4 | 81 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| SF | Q2 9:29 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 7:59 | 7 | 17 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| SF | Q2 5:38 | 6 | -1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 2:47 | 9 | 38 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| SF | Q2 0:45 | 3 | 7 | End of half | 3–13 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–13 |
| SF | Q3 12:53 | 10 | 28 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| LA | Q3 7:55 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 6–13 |
| SF | Q3 5:42 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–13 |
| LA | Q3 3:22 | 5 | 6 | Turnover | 6–13 |
| SF | Q3 0:33 | 6 | 12 | Turnover | 6–13 |
| LA | Q4 12:35 | 11 | 69 | Field goal | 6–16 |
| SF | Q4 6:44 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 6–16 |
| LA | Q4 3:47 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 6–16 |
| SF | Q4 0:21 | 2 | 9 | End of half | 6–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 10/21 | 121 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 19 | 48 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 3 | -8 | -2.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.0%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.64
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.