Closing spread
IND -12
Total
54
Model margin
+6.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.012EPA / play+0.239
- 41.5%Success rate53.8%
- +0.035EPA / dropback+0.412
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.005
- 8.8%Explosive rate11.3%
- 34.6%Third-down rate44.4%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 1.47Points / drive2.73
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed+0.033
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–16 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 13:09 | 4 | 42 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q1 11:33 | 2 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| IND | Q1 10:37 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| TEN | Q1 10:36 | 5 | 26 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| IND | Q1 8:08 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| TEN | Q1 5:10 | 3 | 64 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| IND | Q1 3:54 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| TEN | Q1 3:53 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| IND | Q1 2:21 | 3 | 64 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| TEN | Q1 1:33 | 4 | 70 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| IND | Q2 15:00 | 13 | 94 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| TEN | Q2 9:02 | 7 | 20 | Opp touchdown | 24–31 |
| TEN | Q2 5:05 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 24–31 |
| IND | Q2 3:29 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 24–31 |
| TEN | Q2 3:25 | 5 | 17 | Turnover on downs | 24–31 |
| IND | Q2 2:00 | 9 | 72 | Turnover | 24–31 |
| TEN | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–31 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 74 | Field goal | 24–34 |
| TEN | Q3 11:57 | 12 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 24–34 |
| IND | Q3 6:29 | 4 | 66 | Touchdown | 24–41 |
| TEN | Q3 4:37 | 4 | 1 | Turnover on downs | 24–41 |
| IND | Q3 3:32 | 4 | 8 | Turnover | 24–41 |
| TEN | Q3 1:40 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 24–41 |
| IND | Q3 0:02 | 6 | 33 | Touchdown | 24–48 |
| TEN | Q4 12:56 | 6 | -15 | Punt | 24–48 |
| IND | Q4 9:53 | 5 | 52 | Field goal | 24–51 |
| TEN | Q4 6:57 | 11 | 39 | Turnover | 24–51 |
| IND | Q4 1:45 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–51 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Volek | 21/35 | 269 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 19 | 104 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/33 | 425 | 3 | 2 |
| Jim Sorgi | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 18 | 105 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 4 | 52 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.1%
Expected total
47.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+6.08