Closing spread
IND -12
Total
54
Model margin
+6.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.012EPA / play+0.239
- 41.5%Success rate53.8%
- +0.035EPA / dropback+0.412
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.005
- 8.8%Explosive rate11.3%
- 34.6%Third-down rate44.4%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 1.47Points / drive2.73
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed+0.033
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Volek | 21/35 | 269 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 19 | 104 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/33 | 425 | 3 | 2 |
| Jim Sorgi | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 18 | 105 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 4 | 52 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.1%
Expected total
47.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+6.08