Closing spread
GB -9
Total
41
Model margin
+4.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.110
- 39.8%Success rate46.2%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.241
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.085
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.4%
- 32.3%Third-down rate46.7%
- 51.0%Red-zone TD rate66.5%
- 1.23Points / drive2.02
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed+0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 5/22 | 47 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 33 | 156 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Joey Harrington | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 19/36 | 188 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 23 | 76 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.90