Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
49
Model margin
+1.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.028EPA / play-0.050
- 40.2%Success rate42.6%
- +0.052EPA / dropback-0.005
- -0.169EPA / rush-0.108
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.1%
- 33.4%Third-down rate36.3%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.72Points / drive1.44
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.5%
- +0.061EPA / play allowed+0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 10–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. DAL are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 18/31 | 252 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 30 | 83 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Aaron Brooks | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Fred McAfee | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 14/35 | 160 | 0 | 1 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 23 | 88 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Quincy Morgan | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
4.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.75