Closing spread
MIN -6.5
Total
54
Model margin
+3.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.162
- 44.4%Success rate50.0%
- +0.090EPA / dropback+0.287
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.097
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.7%
- 37.2%Third-down rate52.5%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.81Points / drive2.26
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.004EPA / play allowed+0.107
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. MIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 45 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 10:42 | 7 | 45 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q1 7:05 | 7 | 41 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q1 3:42 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| MIN | Q1 1:12 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–10 |
| SEA | Q2 14:42 | 6 | 76 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| MIN | Q2 12:13 | 4 | 61 | Field goal | 14–13 |
| SEA | Q2 9:48 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| MIN | Q2 9:35 | 11 | 59 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| SEA | Q2 5:06 | 5 | 60 | Touchdown | 21–20 |
| MIN | Q2 3:05 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 21–20 |
| SEA | Q2 1:13 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 21–20 |
| MIN | Q2 0:21 | 2 | 17 | End of half | 21–20 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 13 | Turnover | 21–20 |
| MIN | Q3 12:55 | 3 | 1 | Field goal | 21–23 |
| SEA | Q3 11:58 | 9 | 60 | Field goal | 24–23 |
| MIN | Q3 6:42 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 24–23 |
| SEA | Q3 4:32 | 9 | 32 | Punt | 24–23 |
| MIN | Q4 14:17 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 24–23 |
| SEA | Q4 12:03 | 7 | 48 | Punt | 24–23 |
| MIN | Q4 7:52 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 24–23 |
| SEA | Q4 6:29 | 5 | 16 | Field goal | 27–23 |
| MIN | Q4 3:40 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 27–23 |
| SEA | Q4 2:09 | 6 | 37 | Punt | 27–23 |
| MIN | Q4 0:44 | 4 | 61 | End of half | 27–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 23/34 | 334 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 27 | 112 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 21/33 | 270 | 1 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onterrio Smith | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.38