Closing spread
CAR -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 39 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 9:53 | 6 | 55 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 7:13 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 5:33 | 9 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LA | Q1 1:04 | 3 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| CAR | Q1 0:06 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LA | Q2 11:57 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–14 |
| CAR | Q2 11:00 | 10 | 52 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| LA | Q2 6:12 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 7–17 |
| CAR | Q2 4:19 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LA | Q2 2:08 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| CAR | Q2 1:44 | 4 | -1 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| LA | Q2 0:39 | 4 | 40 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| CAR | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–20 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LA | Q3 12:47 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 7–20 |
| CAR | Q3 8:32 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 7–20 |
| CAR | Q3 6:14 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LA | Q3 4:38 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| LA | Q3 4:21 | 11 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 7–20 |
| CAR | Q4 13:28 | 7 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 7–20 |
| LA | Q4 9:28 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| CAR | Q4 8:50 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| LA | Q4 6:51 | 4 | 7 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| CAR | Q4 5:06 | 6 | 27 | End of half | 7–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 16/30 | 206 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Goings | 31 | 108 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Jake Delhomme | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.14
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.71
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.