2004 · Week 15

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Drew Bledsoe

33·17

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jon Kitna

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 19°F · wind 22mph

Closing spread

BUF -3

Total

41

Model margin

+2.9est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapBengals
  • -0.073EPA / play-0.059
  • 40.7%Success rate43.2%
  • -0.012EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.139EPA / rush-0.114
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.8%
  • 35.8%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 48.1%Red-zone TD rate53.2%
  • 1.71Points / drive1.40
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.135EPA / play allowed-0.048

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. CIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14CIN @ BUF34–39BUF
2023 · W9BUF @ CIN18–24CIN
2022 · playoffsCIN @ BUF27–10CIN
2019 · W3CIN @ BUF17–21BUF
2017 · W5BUF @ CIN16–20CIN
2016 · W11BUF @ CIN16–12BUF
2015 · W6CIN @ BUF34–21CIN
2013 · W6CIN @ BUF27–24CIN

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe15/3018310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaud Williams14302.10
Willis McGahee11252.30
Drew Bledsoe2136.50
Lee Evans1-14-14.00

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna16/3215112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rudi Johnson231305.71
Kenny Watson393.00
Jon Kitna482.00
Chad Johnson122.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

6.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.05
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.93