Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
52.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play+0.174
- 45.7%Success rate50.4%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.235
- -0.056EPA / rush+0.091
- 10.0%Explosive rate10.6%
- 38.2%Third-down rate47.6%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.84Points / drive2.37
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.069EPA / play allowed+0.130
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. KC are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 14:47 | 8 | 37 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 11:15 | 11 | 87 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| DEN | Q1 4:49 | 10 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| KC | Q1 0:02 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–14 |
| DEN | Q2 12:56 | 2 | 16 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| KC | Q2 12:10 | 6 | 29 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| DEN | Q2 9:36 | 7 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 7–21 |
| KC | Q2 6:52 | 6 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| DEN | Q2 4:06 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–28 |
| KC | Q2 3:06 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–28 |
| DEN | Q2 1:51 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 10–28 |
| KC | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–28 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 10–28 |
| KC | Q3 13:32 | 9 | 95 | Touchdown | 10–35 |
| DEN | Q3 8:11 | 7 | 41 | Punt | 10–35 |
| KC | Q3 5:18 | 12 | 79 | Touchdown | 10–42 |
| DEN | Q4 14:13 | 7 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 10–42 |
| KC | Q4 12:22 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–42 |
| DEN | Q4 10:57 | 1 | 58 | Turnover | 10–42 |
| KC | Q4 10:44 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–42 |
| DEN | Q4 9:20 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 10–42 |
| KC | Q4 6:43 | 4 | 46 | Field goal | 10–45 |
| DEN | Q4 5:31 | 6 | 56 | Touchdown | 17–45 |
| KC | Q4 4:13 | 4 | 1 | Turnover on downs | 17–45 |
| DEN | Q4 1:53 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 17–45 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 23/41 | 292 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 9 | 50 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 1 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 16/19 | 224 | 3 | 0 |
| Todd Collins | 1/4 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 30 | 151 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Todd Collins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Omar Easy | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
47.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.99