Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.162EPA / play-0.071
- 50.0%Success rate39.8%
- +0.287EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.046
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.0%
- 52.5%Third-down rate32.3%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
- 2.26Points / drive1.23
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.107EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 53 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q1 8:34 | 12 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| DET | Q1 1:58 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–3 |
| MIN | Q1 0:15 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DET | Q2 12:24 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–3 |
| MIN | Q2 11:04 | 3 | 68 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| DET | Q2 9:53 | 11 | 87 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| MIN | Q2 3:21 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 14–10 |
| DET | Q2 1:56 | 7 | 66 | Field goal | 14–13 |
| MIN | Q2 0:30 | 4 | 43 | End of half | 14–13 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 49 | Punt | 14–13 |
| DET | Q3 10:02 | 5 | 52 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| MIN | Q3 8:37 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| DET | Q3 7:24 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| MIN | Q3 6:44 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 14–13 |
| DET | Q3 4:34 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–13 |
| MIN | Q3 3:31 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–13 |
| DET | Q3 2:35 | 10 | 44 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| MIN | Q4 12:39 | 8 | 63 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| DET | Q4 8:44 | 7 | 82 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| MIN | Q4 6:11 | 10 | 83 | Touchdown | 28–21 |
| DET | Q4 1:37 | 8 | 66 | Touchdown | 28–27 |
| MIN | Q4 0:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 25/35 | 404 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Onterrio Smith | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 25/44 | 361 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Shawn Bryson | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.03