Closing spread
SD -8
Total
35
Model margin
-2.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 11–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CLE are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke McCown | 11/27 | 108 | 0 | 1 |
| Adimchinobe Echemandu | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Suggs | 21 | 105 | 5.0 | 0 |
| William Green | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Luke McCown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.8%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.55
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.34
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.33
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.